The current consensus will eventually collapse in the face of statistics released in the last twenty-four hours. The IFO’s July Business Climate Survey abundantly confirms a scenario that has looked inevitable since early spring—Europe has unquestionably entered a recession and no country will escape it. This should be a sobering warning to consensus economists, who were still predicting an improved outlook for 2013 in July, with 0.5 percent growth in the eurozone as a whole, 0.7 percent in France, and 1.3 percent in Germany! But while this grim news ought to prompt a wrenching re-evaluation, the forecasting community shows such inertia that we are unlikely to see any real change in the consensus until November or December. By then, it will be impossible to deny the undeniable: in 2013, the recession will spread from Southern Europe to the entire rest of the region, and the sovereign debt crisis will become increasingly hard to untangle.