The aggressive protectionist measures announced by the US president over the past few days have generally been perceived as a prime inflationary threat. The reasoning is rather logical. An increase in import tariffs on non-substitutable goods that enter the production processes of key economic sectors or are purchased directly by US consumers will cause the price of those goods to rise. In addition, (i) the US balance of payments is likely to deteriorate and push down the dollar, and this might be exacerbated by potential difficulties in external financing, and (ii) the rest of the world might retaliate against the announced US measures, creating a domino effect. In theory, this combination is the perfect inflationary cocktail. How then can we explain that the markets have not shown greater expectations of inflation?
