It’s not all about the ECB, and the rise in long yields should soon be over

It is now almost certain: judging by the minutes of the ECB’s most recent monetary policy committee meeting, Mario Draghi’s comments during the Sintra forum on 27 June were no accident, but carefully devised to counter the embarrassing flattening of the yield curve in the previous few weeks. That subject is where the 8 June minutes begin, suggesting that there was an intense debate about what most members of the monetary policy committee regard as an anomaly. At a time of rising confidence in the economic outlook, the ECB was clearly expecting the yield curve to steepen, particularly after the French elections removed the main political risks.

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