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	<title>Interest Rates &#8211; RFR</title>
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	<description>GLOBAL MACRO AND THEMATIC INDEPENDENT RESEARCH</description>
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	<title>Interest Rates &#8211; RFR</title>
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	<item>
		<title>Rising oil prices and deteriorating US fundamentals vie for influence over euro-dollar exchange rates</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2018/05/23/rising-oil_prices-vs-euro-dollar-exchange-rates-consumption-real_estate-incomes-interest_rates/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 May 2018 10:21:51 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[WEEKLY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EURO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[incomes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=10282</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[After losing virtually all influence over the euro-dollar exchange rate since the...]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>English summary &#8211; Commodities correction taking shape, market shake-up in view</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2018/02/12/english-summary-commodities-correction-taking-shape-market-shake-up-in-view/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Feb 2018 13:24:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WEEKLY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation expectations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=9409</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This week’s figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) seem to...]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>2018 Outlook – Welcome to Annapurna</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2017/12/19/2018-outlook-welcome-to-annapurna/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Dec 2017 15:11:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FORECASTS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WEEKLY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=9183</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Summary &#8211; Current economic trends seem particularly favorable, but after taking a...]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Yellen resists market calls, but does she really have a choice?</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/07/31/yellen-resists-market-calls-but-does-she-really-have-a-choice/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2014 07:56:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bond Yields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fed Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=4369</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The main risk from the FOMC’s meeting in the past two days was a possible change of direction on Fed monetary policy. It looks like the bank is staying the course. Today’s statement was unequivocal: there will be no rate hike in the foreseeable future. We can only tip our cap to the Fed’s determination in resisting mounting pressure from the market. Janet Yellen would be taking an imprudent risk if she were to rise to the bait and hint at a possible rate hike. Indeed, the U.S. economy may be doing better than it was a few months ago but its ability to weather an increase in long-term interest rates, which would be the obvious corollary to anticipations of a rate hike, is, in our opinion, close to nil….even after apparently positive GDP numbers from the second quarter.]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Strong Buy Latvia!</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/01/03/strong-buy-latvia-2/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jan 2014 17:52:05 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EMU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=2627</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[6%, the hypothetical differential with EMU 17 nominal interest rates required by Latvia to accompany its economic convergence over the next quarter century.<br/>
+ 6: That’s how many countries have joined the European Monetary Union since 2007. At the rate we’re going, the EMU could expand from 18 to 25 members within ten years, or even more—unless, of course, it sheds a few and actually shrinks. But who’s to know, and how to know, where such a deeply dysfunctional currency bloc is heading?<br/>
Latvia’s EMU membership offers a good opportunity to step back and focus on a crucial underlying issue often overlooked by economists: fast-tracking insufficiently developed economies into the currency bloc is irresponsible policy. ]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Scenario 2013-2014: The Financial Crisis, Act III…and Epilogue?</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/10/14/scenario-2013-2014-the-financial-crisis-act-iiiand-epilogue/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Oct 2013 16:20:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FORECASTS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emerging countries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EMU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Growth]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=2434</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[New round of central bank liquidity injections worldwide

The U.S. economy can’t do without Fed support
The euro area is out of recession, but bank sector and sovereign issues remain
The Fed, BoJ, BoE and ECB continue to nurse ailing economies
Continued low interest rates are not enough to dispel emerging risks

The momentum driving global trade has been undermined for the foreseeable future
China can no longer act as the global engine of growth
Foreign exchange rate adjustments appear inevitable
Is inflation, end-point of the financial crisis, around the corner? 

New round of liquidity injections, currency crises, geopolitical tension, labor unrest…
… Inflation remains the most likely scenario, but the path ahead is unclear]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Fresh Round of Central Bank Action Coming Up in 2014</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/10/04/a-fresh-round-of-central-bank-action-coming-up-in-2014/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Oct 2013 16:51:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=2237</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[If we’re correct in assuming the Federal Reserve is not about to start scaling back its asset purchases, worldwide liquidity injections should hit a new high next year. Whereas the aggregate balance sheet of the four leading central banks showed little change in the first half of 2013, we can expect widespread central bank activism over the next few quarters:
- At a rate of 85 billion dollars a month, the Fed’s asset purchases should amount to 1.02 trillion dollars a year.
- The Bank of Japan will be adding anywhere from 600 to 718 billion dollars to its balance sheet as it strives to meet its target of expanding Japan’s monetary base by between 60 and 70 trillion yen a year (making it some 40 percent larger than at the beginning of 2013).
- The Bank of England will be buying 610 billion dollars’ worth of Gilts in connection with its objective to purchase 375 billion pounds of assets via its Asset Purchase Facility. 
- The ECB’s probable upcoming LTRO is likely, in our estimate, to provide]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Euro Area on its Own—With Some Heavy Lifting to be Done</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/07/15/the-euro-area-on-its-own-with-some-heavy-lifting-to-be-done/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jul 2013 12:41:34 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EMU forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international environment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=1956</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The recession in the euro area is almost officially over, but that doesn’t mean the economy is back to normal—far from it. As long as no structural growth policies are enacted, the outlook for the EMU will remain grim and member states will have as much trouble meeting their fiscal targets as before. This leaves just two options open. Either Europe reverts to austerity—in which case the recovery will collapse and we’ll be in for another slump with highly unpredictable consequences—or the ECB completely overhauls its policy stance. The latest developments in the international arena make this second option increasingly likely...]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Tenkan!</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/05/02/tenkan-2/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2013 14:37:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment themes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tenkan]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=1521</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[“Tenkan, a term in several martial arts for a swift, 180-degree pivoting move, has provided the economist and Asia specialist Jacques Gravereau with an analogy for illustrating the ability of the Japanese people to carry out radical changes in direction collectively, flexibly, and energetically.”

Does the policy shift initiated a few months ago by the Japanese authorities qualify as tenkan? On this one, the jury is still out, but in any event, this experiment already represents a key stage in the crisis affecting the developed countries. 

To highlight its importance, we are publishing two papers on this question. The first one, a brief attempt to put Japan’s deflationary episode into perspective, seeks to shed light on why the country was previously in so little of a hurry to deal with this affliction, and why it now feels compelled to take an entirely new tack. 

The second paper is by Frank Benzimra, a specialist on the Japanese economy and financial markets based in Asia for about ten years, who has been kind enough to share his thoughts with us. He begins by explaining how Japan managed to make it through fifteen years of extremely high public debt without lapsing into chaos. He then goes on to discuss the pioneering aspects of Prime Minister Abe’s new policy. In conclusion, he puts forward three possible scenarios for the outcome of “Abenomics,” along with the three investment strategies they imply. 
Departing from our usual practice, we are publishing this contribution in English.]]></description>
		
		
		
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