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	<title>THEMATIC &#8211; RFR</title>
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	<description>GLOBAL MACRO AND THEMATIC INDEPENDENT RESEARCH</description>
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	<title>THEMATIC &#8211; RFR</title>
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		<title>Commodities: rethinking the global structural outlook</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/11/28/commodities-rethinking-the-global-structural-outlook/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2014 06:52:34 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=4840</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Commodity prices tend to be fairly insulated from short-term changes in supply and demand. Given this, as long as the wayward global economy did not call into question the long-term economic outlook its effects on commodity markets was only marginal.

The slide since mid-October should therefore be seen as the bellwether of a marked change in the global outlook in the mid and long term. This is why the recent slide in oil prices is a harbinger of bad news, even though there are obvious benefits for consumers in countries that import oil.]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Who still doesn’t have a pair of “Birkies”? Or how Made in Germany sheds stereotypes</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/06/18/who-still-doesnt-have-a-pair-of-birkies-or-the-popularity-of-products-made-in-germany/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jun 2014 12:56:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unclassified]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Trade]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=4091</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Retailing, leather goods, shoes…German brands are flourishing in unexpected places. Birkenstocks sandals, which seem headed to becoming the must-have item for the summer of 2014, are the latest trend in a broader movement towards reshaping “Made in Germany”.<br/>

Increasingly present on European shelves]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Has Spain Found a Winning Strategy?</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/02/27/has-spain-found-a-winning-strategy/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Feb 2014 14:20:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=3021</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Moody’s decision to upgrade Spain’s sovereign debt rating last week is yet another sign that investor confidence is returning to the Iberian Peninsula—a region often held up as a model for crisis-stricken Southern Europe. The Rajoy administration hopes that lowering Spain’s labor costs will boost the country’s competitiveness, enabling it to export its way out of the crisis. With a battered economy and an arduous deleveraging process that will likely leave a lasting dent in domestic demand, many see this as the only strategy for Spain to get back on track to balanced growth—even if it comes at an immediate high social cost. <br/> <br/>

So is Rajoy’s bet paying off? Has the Spanish economy picked up enough over the past few months to mark a lasting turnaround in the country’s fortunes?]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Germany at the Crossroads</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2014/01/31/germany-at-the-crossroads/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jan 2014 14:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long-Term Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=2857</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The revival of the German economy has supported Ms Merkel since she arrived at the head of Germany in 2005. Will it continue to be the case over the next four years? This is not sure. <br/><br/>

Germany will then need to reform itself. Some of the reforms may be historic for the country and its European future…What should we expect?]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<item>
		<title>China: Population Decline on the Horizon</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/11/11/china-population-decline-on-the-horizon/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2013 17:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Industry]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=2373</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The issue of population probably didn’t make it onto the agenda of the November plenary meeting held by the Chinese leadership to discuss future economic policy. Yet of all the economic challenges China will be compelled to address in the next few years, accelerated population aging definitely tops the list. In any case, the U.N.’s authoritative projections leave no room for doubt about where the country will be in 2040. Between now and then, the U.N. expects the median age to rise by more than eleven years to 46; the working-age population to shrink by 10 percent; the 15-to-44 age group to lose 200 million members, with the 65-and-over group gaining as many; and the ratio of workers to retirees to plummet from 18 to 2 at present to just 5 to 2. So the graying of China is likely to go extremely fast—even faster, in some respects, than the process under way in Europe]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Leveraging France’s Key Strengths</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/04/23/httpwww-richesflores-comwp-contentuploads201305thematics-leveraging-frances-key-strengths_22042013_rf-r1-pdf/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Apr 2013 09:21:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sovereign Debt Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Themes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[austerity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[productivity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strengths]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=1431</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The French economy is undeniably in a bad way. But trying to overcome its shortcomings with the kind of shock therapy inflicted on Southern Europe would be the most dangerous response, both for France and the entire euro area. An alternative approach is therefore required—one that will necessarily involve leveraging more effectively the factors that set the French economy apart. This, then, is the value of taking a closer look at France’s key strengths.]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<item>
		<title>The U.S. Budget: “No, we can’t”</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/03/18/the-u-s-budget-no-we-cant/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[GLOBAL MACRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poverty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[social expenditure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Budget]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=1377</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Beneath the surface noise of the fiscal drama that has kept Washington on edge for months lies a serious societal choice. The model in vogue in the United States since the Reagan era—low taxes and feeble welfare support—is fast unraveling in a society undergoing major change. With a tax rate some 33 percent below the OECD average and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios anywhere, the U.S. government’s coffers are virtually empty—leaving it ill-equipped to meet swelling demand for public programs to address such issues as rising poverty, declining geographic mobility, and a rapidly aging population. 
The country has two basic alternatives:
-	Either the Americans stand pat in rejecting the inevitable—a hefty increase in taxation—thus accepting, in essence, greater inequality and the demise of the American Dream;
-	Or, as is more likely, they eventually agree to abandon their previous credo, in which case a secular increase in payroll and income tax will be on the agenda. 
But either way, the United States of tomorrow will be a very different beast from the pre-crisis United States. 
The U.S. fiscal controversy is far from over. More to the point, it has unquestionably weakened the country’s ability to reverse its debt trajectory any time soon.
]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Deleveraging Mirage: A Careful Look at Italy Today</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2013/02/03/the-deleveraging-mirage-a-careful-look-at-italy-today/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Feb 2013 20:37:29 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sovereign Debt Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=3018</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Europe’s most distressed countries should see their debt peak in a year or two, before descending to more manageable levels by 2020. Or at least that’s what the IMF, the European Commission, and the credit rating agencies all claim. Coming on the heels of the 2012 crisis, this is a heartening forecast—but a pretty surprising one, too. Just what is it based on? We’ve examined these institutions’ various scenarios for Italy and Spain, whose mounting sovereign debt burden loomed large in 2012, and for France, where the sovereign debt outlook raises a whole host of questions]]></description>
		
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Kartoffeln Für Alle, or a Plaza Accord for the Euro?</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2012/11/25/kartoffeln-fur-alle-or-a-plaza-accord-for-the-euro/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Nov 2012 21:46:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Competitivity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=977</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Those who believe we can offset the devastating effect of an overvalued euro by copying German recipes from the preceding decade are kidding themselves. A brief look at how the German economy achieved competitive adjustment will highlight the unique conditions that supported such a turnaround. Today, no other eurozone Member State has anywhere near the kind of industrial strength enjoyed by Germany, or for that matter the means to ease the social pain of the reforms needed to put the common currency area back on a competitive footing. If Europe’s leaders persist in copying past German recipes without considering how or why they worked, the monetary union will unquestionably be facing its greatest danger ever. 
To fend off that danger, there is just one viable response: an orchestrated depreciation of the euro along the lines of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which was designed to counteract the damaging effects of an overvalued dollar on the world economy. Let’s hope the prospects of a protracted eurozone slump will win enough converts to such an approach, because it probably holds out the last chance to save the common currency.]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<item>
		<title>From High Hopes to Despair: The Missing Metric in the European Monetary Union</title>
		<link>https://richesflores.com/2012/07/14/from-high-hopes-to-despair-the-missing-metric-in-the-european-monetary-union/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Véronique Riches-Flores]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2012 13:53:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[European Monetary Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THEMATIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://richesflores.com/?p=1851</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It all started out with high hopes. The idea was to build a united Europe that would enhance well-being all around. A sharing Europe that gave the continent’s least developed countries an opportunity for fast-track convergence with the wealthiest countries. And lastly, a peaceful Europe—because the combined economic strength and weight of its members would ensure lasting cohesion.

In the first several years, those hopes appeared to be more than well-founded. When Spain joined the EU in the mid-1980’s, the country’s living standards lagged 25 percent behind the French-German average. Within less than fifteen years, the ensuing boom had lifted Spanish per capita income by 50 percent, making up for nearly half of the initial differential. Over that time span, massive foreign investment drove industrial expansion and exports quadrupled in volume, with 75 percent going to other EU Member States. The labor force also increased from 11 million to 15 million, while year after year, EU structural transfers, of which Spain has long been the leading recipient, helped the country gradually build up infrastructure to the level required to secure long-term growth.]]></description>
		
		
		
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